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Map: Tracking Tropical Storm Gordon

Vaseline September 13, 2024

Gordon was a tropical storm in the northern Atlantic Ocean as of Friday morning eastern time, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory.

The tropical storm had sustained winds of 40 miles per hour.

All times on the map are eastern. By The New York Times

Where will it rain?

Flash flooding can occur far inland and away from the storm’s center. Even weaker storms can produce excessive rainfall that can flood low-lying areas.

Source: NOAA By The New York Times

What does the storm look like from above?

Satellite images can help determine the strength, size, and coherence of a storm. The stronger a storm becomes, the more likely it is that an eye will form in the middle. If the eye appears symmetrical, it often means that the storm is not encountering anything that could weaken it.

In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted there would be 17 to 25 named storms this year, a higher than normal number.

This season follows an overactive year, with 20 named storms — including an early storm that was later officially dubbed “Unnamed.” It was the eighth consecutive year that the average of 14 named storms was exceeded. Only one hurricane, Idalia, made landfall in the United States.

Normally, the El Niño pattern in effect last season would have suppressed hurricanes and reduced the number of storms in a season. But in 2023, warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic have weakened El Niño’s usual effect of thwarting storms.

The warm ocean temperatures that fueled last year’s season warmed even more at the start of this season, giving meteorologists more confidence that more storms would form this year. The higher sea surface temperatures could also strengthen storms faster than normal.

To make matters worse, last year’s El Niño pattern is also waning, likely creating a more conducive atmosphere for storm formation and intensification.

Hurricanes need a calm environment to form, and in the Atlantic Ocean, a strong El Niño increases the amount of wind shear — a change in wind speed and/or direction with height — that disrupts a storm’s ability to coalesce. Without an El Niño this year, clouds are more likely to rise sky-high to sustain a powerful cyclone.

Sources and notes

Tracking card Tracking data is from the National Hurricane Center. The map shows probabilities of at least 5 percent. The forecast is valid for up to five days, with that time span beginning three hours before the reported time the storm reaches its final location. Wind speed probability data is not available north of 60.25 degrees north latitude.

Wind arrival table Arrival times are generated from a New York Times analysis of National Hurricane Center data. Geographic locations use data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Natural Earth. Time zones are based on Google. The table shows predicted arrival times of sustained damaging winds of 58 mph or greater for selected cities with a probability of such winds reaching them. If damaging winds reach a location, there is no more than a 10 percent chance they will arrive before the “earliest reasonable” time and a 50 percent chance they will arrive before the “most likely” time.

Radar map Radar images come from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration via Iowa State University. These mosaics are generated by combining individual radar stations that form the NEXRAD network.

Storm surge map Storm surge data is from the National Hurricane Center. Forecasts include only the U.S. coasts, the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Actual areas subject to flooding may differ from those shown on this map. This map accounts for tides, but not for waves and flooding from rainfall. The map also includes intertidal zones, which routinely flood during typical high tides.

Satellite map The images are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Japan Meteorological Agency via the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere.

Precipitation card Data for multi-day forecasts or observed rainfall totals comes from the National Weather Service. The 1-day forecast comes from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.