On Thursday night, the Buffalo Bills travel south to take on the Miami Dolphins in a crucial early-season game in the AFC East.

Both teams are 1-0 after their comeback wins in Week 1 and will look to secure first place in the division with a win in Week 2.

Let’s take a look at the matches and find out where the betting value lies.

When the Bills have the ball

We have a growing picture of what offensive coordinator Joe Brady wants his offense to look like in Buffalo.

In Week 1, the Bills had a neutral pass-play rate of 47%, which would have ranked 30th in the NFL last year. Josh Allen had four pass attempts at halftime.

It’s clear Brady wants to build the run with a strong offensive line, and I don’t think that will change Thursday night against the Dolphins.

Miami’s run defense took a hit this offseason with the loss of Christian Wilkins.

Last year, the Dolphins allowed 3.7 yards per carry to opposing running backs with Wilkins on the field and 4.3 yards without him, according to Sharp Football.

Their run defense held up well in Week 1, but we’ll see if it continues that way.

The Bills are hoping rookie Keon Coleman remains with the roster on Thursday after he led the team with an 86.7% route run rate and a 31.3% first-read rate, according to Fantasy Points Data.

However, he could attract the attention of top player Jalen Ramsey, which would limit his potential.

When the Dolphins have the ball

After some notable off-field distractions, it took a while for Miami’s offense to get going in Week 1.

The Dolphins finished 20th in offensive EPA/play in the first half and 14th in the second half.

There are some serious concerns about the new offensive line, however. Miami generated just 2.99 adjusted line yards (29th) and rushed for 59 yards on 21 running back carries (2.8 average).

Miami will be without Raheem Mostert and possibly De’Von Achane on Thursday night.

Achane, who caught seven passes for 76 yards last week and ranked third on the team with a 46.3% route run rate, would be a huge loss at receiver.

The Dolphins lost Robert Hunt and Connor Williams to free agency and Isaiah Wynn went on the PUP list, leaving the team with an entirely new offensive line.

That could spell trouble against the Bills’ powerful front, which ranked second in run-to-stop percentage in Week 1.

Additionally, DE Greg Rousseau is coming off a three-sack game against Arizona.

Tua Tagovailoa was ranked 20th in passing percentage in Week 1. He could step it up offensively, but I’m not sure he can against the Bills, who have been excellent against him the last few years.

Buffalo has limited Tagovailoa to a 61.8% completion percentage with six touchdowns and seven interceptions in the last six meetings.

Betting on the NFL?

The verdict

I bought the Under straight away this week when it was still at 51 points, but I still don’t mind buying it at 49 points, or even 48.5 points, while the price has dropped at some bookmakers.

Over the past four seasons, the primetime unders have been 59%. According to Action Network’s Brandon Anderson, Thursday Night Football games in September and October with a total of 49.5 or higher are 15-4-1 (79%) under.

Also pay attention to the weather forecast. Thunderstorms with strong winds are expected in the afternoon and may continue into the evening.

Recommendation: Less than 49 points (-110, BetMGM).