• WR AJ Brown, Philadelphia Eagles — 5.5+ receptions: Last season, Brown was targeted eight or more times in 13 of his 16 games, breaking that record 11 times.

• QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles — Less than 37.5 rushing yards: Saquon-Barkley would have to do much of the work on the ground, likely at the expense of some Hurts-designed runs.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Game Overview

São Paulo, Brazil, will host the first NFC game of the 2024 season, with two teams locked in a playoff run. The rare Friday night game looks set to be a powerful one, with both Philadelphia (seventh) and Green Bay (ninth) ranked in the top 10 of the PFF’s Power Rankings and both are effective 2024 on the road.

Jordan LoveThe Packers enter the year with momentum on their side after a stunning run to close out the 2023 season, which saw the team win its first playoff game of the Love era, beating the Cowboys 48-32 in Dallas. Green Bay appears to have found another franchise passer in Love, who led the league in PFF passing grade (89.1) as of Week 7 of last season.

While Love’s weapons may not jump off the page, he elevates the game around him. That should bode well for the newest addition to this offense, running back Josh Jacobswhose presence will certainly help open up the coverage, if he can regain his 2022 form, which led to a league-leading 91.9 PFF rushing grade.

Conversely, the Eagles are looking to get the ship right after losing steam late last season. Despite their rocky finish, general manager Howie Roseman went to work this offseason to plug the holes in this roster. The raid on former division rival Saquon-Barkley to this backfield and the trade for Jahan Dotson to supplement an already dangerous receiving team with his offseason moves.

The additions didn’t stop at offense, as Roseman also addressed the void in his secondary in the draft by selecting cornerback Quinyon Mitchell in the first round. Yet the pride of this Philly defense rests on a vicious pass rush, led by a second-year interior pass rusher Jalen Carter and former Jets breakout edge rusher Bryce Huff.

WR AJ Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: More than 5.5 receptions (-124) — 0.6% PFF Greenline Edge

Without a doubt, AJ Brown is one of the league’s best receivers on the outside, and is among the best at the position in almost every receiving facet. He also happens to be the quarterback Jalen hurts‘ favorite target and enjoys a heavy workload as a result. Last season, Brown saw eight or more targets in 13 of his 16 games, helping him surpass that record 11 times.

The All-Pro receiver is not only a target monster on this offense — with a threat rate nearly 7 percentage points better than any other Eagle — but he’s also one of the The NFL’s Most Wanted Receivers overall, especially on late downs, where he ranked fifth in the NFL.

Brown is also one of the most physical receivers in the game, and is making contested grabs at an impressive rate. In 2023, he made 14 contested grabs, the 10th most at the position.

When Hurts finds Brown, good things happen.

QB Jalen hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: Less than 37.5 Rushing Yards (-117) — 1.3% PFF Greenline Edge

At first glance, it might seem odd to ignore the rushing totals of a dual-threat quarterback, especially for a player as talented as Jalen hurtsbut this line is a bit too high — and the numbers seem to support that.

Despite completing over 150 attempts and generating a 76.7 PFF rushing grade last season, Hurts has topped his rushing yardage total in just four of his 18 games. Over 26 percent of his carries have come on quarterback sneaks.

Add to this the fact that Saquon-Barkley will also do a lot of the work on the ground, which will likely come at the expense of some of Hurts’ designed runs, and it’s harder to see Hurts overstepping that limit.