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Ravens-Chiefs key matchups and subplots, plus a prediction: First-and-10
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Ravens-Chiefs key matchups and subplots, plus a prediction: First-and-10

Derrick Henry watched the AFC Championship Game at home in January, knowing he could have easily been there. He wanted to be there.

“Sure,” Henry said. “I wish I could wear a suit that day.”

The Tennessee Titans nearly traded Henry to the Baltimore Ravens before the trade deadline last October. The Ravens were confident they were working toward a deal. The Titans decided they would not trade the Pro Bowl running back.

About four months later, the Ravens added Henry on their own terms, signing the 30-year-old to a two-year, $16 million contract. The Ravens denied it, but some outsiders saw the signing as a response to Baltimore’s 17-10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs with a Super Bowl berth on the line.

The Ravens, oddly enough, only ran the ball 16 times in that loss, and only six of those carries were by running backs. If Henry was purple that day, would those numbers — and perhaps the outcome of the game — be different?

It’s fun to speculate about a question that will never be answered. But on Thursday night, in the NFL’s season opener, the Ravens will get their first look at the impact Henry could have on their offense. His debut on a team that has long been his rival, and against a team he’s played well against in the past, is one of the more intriguing subplots leading up to a showdown between two multiple-time MVP quarterbacks.

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“Well, I would just say that based on what we’ve seen in the past, what we’ve seen in the offseason, what we’ve seen in training camp, we have a pretty good idea of ​​what he can bring to the table,” Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken said. “Now we’re ready to let someone play and see.”

Monken has listened to months of criticism about the team’s pass-heavy approach in the AFC Championship. He downplayed that series of questions Monday, but the topic was impossible to avoid.

“I’ve tried to let go of that a little bit,” he said. “This is this year, and we’re going to run the ball. We’ve run the ball all season, so I don’t think about it that way. We’re going to try to do the best we can do to move the ball and score points.”

In Henry, the Ravens have a running back with 9,502 career regular-season rushing yards and 93 total touchdowns. In four career games against the Chiefs, Henry is averaging 5.7 yards per carry, his highest total against an opponent. He is also averaging 111.8 rushing yards per game, his second-highest total against an opponent.

During the game weeks, we will explore some of the storylines, matchups, and questions facing the Ravens as they head into the game. This week’s first-and-10:

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1. The Chiefs clearly believed they could get inside the Ravens’ heads in January, and they were right. From Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce tossing Justin Tucker’s gear in the lead-up to Kelce challenging Kyle Van Noy to an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty to L’Jarius Sneed eliciting a mock call on Zay Flowers, the Chiefs put their experience and cunning to good use. Tucker didn’t have much to say about the incident involving Kansas City’s biggest stars this week, and the Ravens generally chose their words carefully in the locker room. But they remembered how the Chiefs took them off their game. In what appears to be another emotionally charged environment, the Ravens have been reminded to keep their composure and avoid ill-advised penalties.

2. John Harbaugh and his Chiefs colleague Andy Reid are good friends and spent a lot of time together in Philadelphia. They also apparently have different views on playing starters in the preseason. Reid played most of his guys, including Mahomes, who logged 24 snaps in two games; and Kelce, who played 17. Baltimore, meanwhile, sat most of its starters on both sides of the ball. Twenty-one Ravens didn’t play a single preseason snap. Will it matter? Roquan Smith said it’s up to the Ravens to make sure rust doesn’t become a factor. It’s worth noting, however, that after most of their starters didn’t play in the preseason last year, the Ravens got off to a slow start in Week 1 against Houston before finding their game in the second half. They may not have the luxury of a slow start on Thursday.

3. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo had a lot of success sending heavy blitzes to Lamar Jackson in January. Kansas City blitzed him on 44 percent of his dropbacks. Ravens quarterbacks coach Tee Martin acknowledged that the Chiefs poked holes in the team’s protection schemes and forced the coaching staff to make some offseason adjustments. The Ravens also spent a lot of time in training camp working against the blitz. We’ll see how much the team learns, but Spagnuolo has been so successful at mixing things up over the years.

4. Flowers was one of several Ravens who downplayed the revenge aspect this week. “It’s a different season now, so I’m not too worried about last year,” he said Tuesday. Flowers walked off the field in tears after his early fourth-quarter fumble while trying to reach the end zone. The turnover came four plays after his provocative penalty and crushed Baltimore’s best comeback opportunity. He was one of the best Ravens on the field that day, making five catches for 115 yards and a touchdown. He’ll need to have a big game if his team wants to get off to a 1-0 start.


Zay Flowers’ fourth-quarter fumble in January’s AFC championship game thwarted the Ravens’ best comeback chance. (Geoff Burke/USA Today)

5. Baltimore’s biggest question of the offseason has been about its offensive line after losing three veteran starters. Harbaugh has declined to reveal his starters up front, but Andrew Vorhees and Daniel Faalele were the starting guards throughout the preseason, while veteran Patrick Mekari and rookie second-round pick Roger Rosengarten were both run at right tackle. A comment from Monken earlier this week seemed to indicate that Mekari would be favored, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the Ravens went with a rotation as they have in the past. Either way, they’ll learn a lot about their offensive line on Thursday.

6. In the second round of the 2024 draft, the Ravens were willing to trade their No. 62 pick to the Chiefs for the No. 64 pick and at least one Day 3 pick. However, Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta got cold feet. Knowing the Chiefs were looking for an offensive tackle, DeCosta was concerned that Kansas City would select Rosengarten, the man the Ravens coveted. DeCosta played it cool and selected Rosengarten, while the Chiefs moved up one spot in a deal with the San Francisco 49ers to take BYU tackle Kingsley Suamataia. Whether the Chiefs attempted to trade with the Ravens to get Rosengarten or if they wanted Suamataia all along is unclear, but they appear happy with their selection. Suamataia is expected to start for the Chiefs at left tackle.

7. One of the more interesting decisions for Ravens first-year defensive coordinator Zach Orr is how he uses his deep cornerback group. Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Stephens are the starters on the outside, but Orr can mix and match around them. He could use safety Kyle Hamilton or Ar’Darius Washington on the inside. He could move Humphrey to the slot and have first-round rookie Nate Wiggins play on the outside. Jalyn Armour-Davis, who has a nice combination of size and speed, could enter the mix. A matchup between Chiefs first-round receiver Xavier Worthy, who ran a 4.21 in the 40-yard dash, and Wiggins, who runs a 4.28, would be a lot of fun.

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8. Hamilton said it didn’t take long to process the 19-yard touchdown that Mahomes and Kelce combined to open the scoring in the AFC championship game. It was the only touchdown Hamilton allowed during his All-Pro season. He understood there wasn’t much he could do with the play, which showcased the chemistry of two future first-ballot Hall of Famers. But Hamilton and Orr surely understand that the Ravens need to do a much better job of mapping Kelce. He demolished the Ravens in January with 11 catches for 116 yards and the score. Mahomes went to Kelce to convert a fourth-and-2, a third-and-1, a third-and-5 and a third-and-7. Hamilton will not only be responsible for Kelce, but he’ll likely get a lot of reps against him.

9. According to the league, the average field position after preseason kickoffs was the 28.8-yard line. That has led to debate over whether it makes more sense to kick the ball through the end zone and give teams possession at the 30 to avoid the risk of long returns or injuries. The Ravens will make that decision on a kick-by-kick basis, but special teams coordinator Chris Horton said the Ravens are confident they can use the new rules to their advantage — and they won’t be afraid to keep the ball in play. Unless he was being misleading, it appears we’ll see some returns on Thursday.

10. Rookie outside linebacker Adisa Isaac (hamstring) is the only Raven expected to be ruled out for the game, meaning his health won’t have much impact on game-day roster decisions. Baltimore has until 4 p.m. ET on Thursday to make at least two practice squad elevations and other back-end moves. There’s no obvious hole on the roster, but the Ravens are always looking to upgrade their special teams corps, which should put players like wide receiver Keith Kirkwood, inside linebacker Josh Ross and cornerback Ka’dar Hollman in the discussion for elevation. Given how little rookie running back Rasheen Ali (neck) has practiced, the Ravens could also add another No. 3 running back with veteran John Kelly entering the mix. If they need more than the two elevation spots, they would add a player to the 53-man roster and move either Isaac or Ali to injured reserve. As for potential game-day inactive players, Ali, Isaac, wide receiver Devontez Walker, cornerback TJ Tampa and offensive linemen Nick Samac and Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu appear to be the top candidates.

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Prediction

Chiefs 23, Ravens 14

This game isn’t necessarily a referendum on how the Ravens will fare this season. It’s more a reflection of where they are right now. They’re entering one of the toughest environments in football to face Reid, Mahomes and the Super Bowl champions with an inexperienced offensive line, a first-year defensive coordinator and a litany of starters who haven’t played in a game in eight months. Some rust and early-season nerves are inevitable. If the Ravens can control this game on the ground, there’s no reason they can’t win. But that’s a lot to ask with an offensive line that has a lot to prove.

(Photo of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson: Tork Mason / USA Today)