Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The long national nightmare is over. Football — the college variety — has arrived.

The schedule makers have provided some crackers in the college football Week 1 odds market. But just like last season, Coach Deion Sanders is all the rage early as his Colorado Buffaloes host perennial FCS championship contender North Dakota State.

“I’m not surprised at all. The action in Colorado has been pretty consistent. It’s not as much as last year, but the Buffaloes haven’t really lost their momentum,” said Joey Feazel, head of football business at Caesars Sports.

Bookmakers and seasoned punters share their insights into some of the notable fixtures from Week 1 as we take our first journey into the best bets on American football matches in 2024.

Ahead of the curve

Several bookmakers in Las Vegas and across the country have indicated they will be liable for Thursday night’s game in Boulder, which will host Colorado.

Caesars Sports is not in that position at this time, but will be on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET.

“We supported Colorado because we think highly of Colorado,” Feazel said Wednesday night.

Caesars opened this matchup on April 22 at -9.5 against Colorado, but saw that number drop back to -7.5 in early May. By August 3, it had risen to -9, and the Buffs briefly hit -10.5 on Wednesday.

It’s currently -9.5 in Colorado.

“It seems like the sharps are telling us 10 is too many. But that could change,” Feazel said. “Right now, we really need Colorado to be 11 or more, but it’s a very close call. I expect we’ll need North Dakota State at kickoff.

“The public will be there on game day in Colorado.”

According to data analyst John Ewing, there is already plenty of point-spread action on the Buffs at BetMGM.

“Colorado is the most bet on team in Week 1 at BetMGM,” Ewing tweeted.

Looking at the bigger picture, Ewing notes that Colorado is the biggest risk group for BetMGM to win the College Football Playoff.

That said, the Buffaloes still have a comfortable +15000 (150/1) lead on the championship trophy.

College Football is great on FOX

The first Big Noon Kickoff of the FOX Sports season will take place in what is sure to be a hyped-up Morgantown, with host and unranked West Virginia hoping to pull off an upset of No. 8 Penn State in the noon ET kickoff.

Months ago, on April 25, DraftKings Sportsbook opened Penn State as a 12-point favorite. By August 11, the Nittany Lions had fallen to -10, with the last few days bringing moves to -9.5, -9, -8.5, and -8 before settling on Penn State at -7.5 early Tuesday.

The Nittany Lions are now at -8.

DraftKings’ midweek betting is interesting for this game, with Penn State taking 69% of the point-spread bets but the point-spread money remaining the same.

Gamblers optimistic about Bulldogs

No. 14 Clemson vs. No. 1 Georgia is perhaps the biggest game on the college football Week 1 oddsboard. It’s another noon ET contest, and a quasi-neutral-site contest, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

In April, Caesars Sports opened this matchup on Georgia at -13.5, and since then the line has mostly hovered between -13.5 and -14. Over the past few days, the Bulldogs have made a few brief dips to -13 before coming back to -13.5 (-120).

“This is clearly the biggest game of the week,” Feazel said. “We see a lot of action from Georgia, so in this game we have a decision. We need Clemson to show up and lose by 13 or less.

“It will probably be our most important decision on Saturday.”

Sharp edge on campus

Speaking of Clemson-Georgia, college football betting expert Paul Steen has an opinion about the game — but about the total, the consensus of which is 48.5.

Stone likes the Under and gives a few supporting reasons:

• Clemson lacks a strong passing game and must replace the production of running back Will Shipley, a jack-of-all-trades who generated more than 4,200 all-purpose yards in three seasons.
• Georgia has Heisman candidate Carson Beck back at QB, but loses tight end Brock Bowers and wide receiver Ladd McConkey.

“Clemson threw the ball long (more than 20 yards) on just 7.8 percent of its pass attempts last year, ranking dead last in that category among the 133-team FBS team,” Stone said. “The Tigers also had just 46 plays of 20 yards or more in 13 games. Clemson and Georgia both look for field-stretching playmakers, and it’s no secret that both programs are known for their stout defenses.

“Points will be scarce on Saturday, I think. I expect a game with fewer goals.”

Stone also projects a +31.5 rating for Colorado State against fourth-place Texas.

“I think Texas is a playoff team this year. But the Longhorns are going to miss the defensive tackle duo of Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat,” Stone said. “The Longhorns are a little vulnerable in the back end of their defense, and I think they’re going to get a steady dose of (Colorado State’s) Tory Horton, one of the best wide receivers in college football.

“Plus, Texas has an important game coming up next weekend in Michigan. It makes sense for them to look ahead.”

While he lives in the Lone Star State, where Stone resides, he likes to see underdog No. 7 Notre Dame take on No. 20 Texas A&M on Saturday night. Stone noted that Notre Dame will introduce a new offensive line, while A&M will showcase new coach Mike Elko.

The Aggies have been getting money lately to get to -3.

“I really think Riley Leonard is a significant upgrade at the quarterback position for Notre Dame,” Stone said of the transfer from Duke.

Stone also noted that it’s a small sample size, but Notre Dame has gone 4-1-1 against the spread as an underdog in Marcus Freeman’s two seasons as coach.

Ohio State, Texas in Joel Klatt’s 12-Team Preseason Playoff Predictions

Confrontation in College Station

The focus is on Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M. As mentioned above, the Fighting Irish may be the top-ranked game, but they aren’t favorites in College Station for Saturday’s 7:30 PM ET kickoff.

Caesars Sports opened this game months ago with a 1-point lead, and Notre Dame briefly held the lead as a 1-point favorite on August 5. But since then, the score has shifted four points, and the Aggies are now at -3.

“The market was initially higher on Notre Dame than we were, but the market eventually moved our way,” Feazel said. “There’s been some sharp stuff happening all over Texas A&M. We’re going to see a lot of public action on Notre Dame, but the trend isn’t going that way.

“This looks like a Pros vs. Joes matchup, and we’re going to need the Aggies to pull ahead by at least 3 points.”

Tigers vs Trojans in Vegas

Week 1 features a standalone game on Sunday night, which takes place in Las Vegas at Allegiant Stadium. No. 13 LSU plays No. 23 USC, with both teams moving beyond stud quarterbacks.

Caleb Williams was the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, going to the Chicago Bears. Jayden Daniels, who won the Heisman Trophy for LSU last season, went No. 2 overall to the Washington Commanders.

“This is one where, interestingly enough, we opened higher on LSU, at -6.5. But the Sharps sent us to LSU -4.5,” Feazel said of the wiseguy move on underdog USC. “Both teams are going to look very different this year, as two of the teams that have been hit the hardest in terms of losing players.”

Although Southern Cal fans will have a much shorter trip, Feazel expects an LSU crowd to take over the Vegas Strip, betting on the Tigers with fists full of cash. Plus, LSU has made a good bet at Caesars in the Louisiana market.

“It’s not a big decision right now, but we’re going to see a lot of LSU action heading into the game. There’s a huge LSU fan base that loves to support their Tigers. We need the Trojans to cover +4.5.”

Furthermore, Caesars expects this to be a high-scoring affair. The total opened at 62 and peaked at 65 on Wednesday morning. It is now 64.5.

“I’m curious to see how this whole thing responds. It’s two of the best offensive schemes in college football, and two of the worst defenses,” Feazel said.

I like big bets and I can’t lie

There have already been some notable bets pouring into the college football odds markets, mainly on the winner of the College Football Playoff championship and other futures. A few interesting bets at Caesars Sports:

• $15,000 at Georgia +300 to win the CFP. If the favored Bulldogs win their third title in four years, the bettor wins $45,000 ($60,000 total payout).
• $2,000 on Colorado +7500 to win the CFP. In the unlikely event that Coach Prime’s team wins it all, the bettor benefits from a whopping $150,000 ($152,000 total payout)
• $630 on Texas running back Jaydon Blue +20000 (200/1) to win the Heisman Trophy. It’s another unlikely outcome, but if it happens, the bettor wins $126,000 ($126,630 total payout)

Speaking of incredible, one gambler put $200 on Army at 5,000/1 odds to win the CFP, and made a $1 million profit. And another Caesars customer bet $100 on South Florida to win the CFP, also at 5,000/1 odds, and made a $500,000 profit.

Much more likely, a customer at Hard Rock Sports in Florida put a five-figure sum behind The U.

That’s a lot of faith to put in the Hurricanes. And with football season starting, it’s a good time for a reminder: Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Keep it reasonable and enjoy the opening weekend of college football.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a leading journalist in the national sports betting industry. He lives in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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