After a year of golf, shots and shots, wins and close calls, the 2024 PGA Tour season comes down to one final event, the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. Sunday’s winner from a field of 30 players will claim not only the tournament title, but also the FedEx Cup and its $25 million reward for the culmination of a year of golf.

As has been the case for the past two years, Scottie Scheffler arrives in Atlanta this week with an early lead. The Tour Championship’s staggered starting format gives the FedEx Cup points leader going into the tournament a two-stroke lead over his nearest rival (this year it’s Xander Schauffele) and an even larger lead over everyone else entering. Scheffler begins the tournament at 10 under par, while Schauffele starts at eight under par. Below are the starting positions for everyone playing at East Lake.

You could argue that a two-stroke lead for Scheffler isn’t much, considering how far ahead he was on the FedEx Cup points list (over 1,000 compared to Schauffele), but the scale isn’t adjusted that way. Scheffler could argue that too, since the lead doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed victory. On the contrary, he’s been caught from behind the last two years, by Rory McIlroy in 2022 and Viktor Hovland a year ago. The same goes for Justin Thomas when he was the leader in the first year of staggered starts in 2019.

The other reason for Scheffler to be concerned? His personal record at East Lake is so-so, while Schauffele’s is solid. Scheffler’s 16-round career average is 68.44. Schauffele’s, meanwhile, is 66.96, including a win at the course during the days of the staggered start in 2017. He shot the lowest scores at the course in 2020, excluding the staggered start.

Long story short, nothing has been set in stone yet with the tour’s final event taking place in 2024.

Christian Bezuidenhout, E.