The CSIS report bases its findings on Chinese military doctrine, simulation exercises and expert assessments. The report notes that the three blockade scenarios presented are not the only options through which China could seize control of Taiwan.

A quarantine or, to take it a step further, a blockade of Taiwan has long been discussed by Chinese military planners and various officials and experts as an option for China to achieve unification with Taiwan. However, a blockade is a high-risk operation that increases the likelihood of a broader, longer conflict because it is an act of war.

In recent years, there has been growing concern that China will use non-peaceful means to achieve reunification, as Beijing has been aggressive in the sea and air around Taiwan.

This trend has been well documented by the U.S. Department of Defense. In its 2023 report on the Chinese military, the department noted that the previous year had seen “increased” Chinese pressure on Taiwan, including what it described as “increased provocative and destabilizing actions in and around the Taiwan Strait,” as well as significant forms of political, economic, and military coercion.

However, tensions in the Taiwan Strait rose in January 2024, when Taiwan elected its new president, Lai Ching-te, much to Beijing’s chagrin.

Lai’s victory prompted China to brand him a separatist and take a series of measures to punish Taiwan, including military actions around the most vulnerable islands near the Chinese mainland and larger-scale exercises to show how easily China could encircle Taiwan and possibly impose a blockade.

The new CSIS report lays out three possible blockade scenarios. The first, an all-out kinetic blockade, is the most severe option and closely follows Chinese military doctrine.

It could be a complex operation. For example, China announces live-fire exercises around Taiwan, but large-scale military operations against the country could soon be carried out.

According to the CSIS document, China could choose to launch strikes against hundreds of military, government and infrastructure targets on Taiwan, while simultaneously cutting off its internet and communications access. It would covertly mine Taiwan’s major ports, impose a no-fly zone over them and close the entire Taiwan Strait.

There is a risk of escalation because kinetic attacks entail a kinetic response that can ignite a conflict.

The second scenario, a mining blockade, has similar premises but focuses on laying naval mines around Taiwanese ports to intimidate Taiwan’s military and commercial shipping.

In this scenario, experts noted that China could launch cyberattacks that take out military and civilian communications systems and internet access, rather than coordinated kinetic attacks. However, some of Taiwan’s defenses would still be active, leaving it with the ability to fight back, possibly by targeting the Chinese air force with its air defenses. As with the first scenario, there is a risk of further escalation.

The second situation, however, places the US and its allies in a much gray area than the first, as a controlled, partial blockade would be less likely to provoke the same kind of international outrage and military involvement, the experts wrote.

And the third scenario, a limited blockade, is a variation on the second but excludes naval mining. By avoiding minelaying and kinetic attacks, Beijing would likely have control over how the conflict escalates and could maintain a more subdued narrative on the world stage, potentially raising questions about whether U.S. intervention is warranted at all.

In this situation, China would potentially rely primarily on the presence of its navy and air force. This option carries less risk, but the possibility of escalation is there anyway.

For Taiwan, all three scenarios pose serious challenges. The economy is heavily dependent on trade, with the new CSIS report noting that imports and exports accounted for 61 percent and 69 percent of GDP in 2022, respectively. The country is believed to have only a few months of energy and food supplies to sustain itself.

It is unclear whether Taiwan’s military can withstand major Chinese military operations, especially if the US and its allies do not come to its aid. And in that situation, it is also unclear how long Taiwan can hold out, how long it will resist.

But there are also many unknown factors for China.

According to the CSIS report, “the success or failure of a Chinese blockade depends on many factors,” including “Taiwan’s resilience and willingness to defend itself and the extent to which Washington and its allies intervene.” These are “critical,” the report said.

Other considerations include how well the People’s Liberation Army is prepared, how Beijing controls its frontline troops, and how it manages escalation. The CSIS experts say these are “important not only for a successful blockade, but also for ensuring that a blockade does not inadvertently escalate into an invasion or war.”